Note: A prescient geo-political analysis from pre-9/11 2001. LBW
By Dr George Friedman
Abstract:
Look at the time line of the last few years and trace a finger across a map.
NATO dispatches troops to Bosnia, Kosovo and now Macedonia. Sentiment builds within the G-8 to send forces to the West Bank and Gaza to control the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Russia reasserts its claims to the Caucasus, despite condemnation by the United States and its allies.
At first glance, these appear to be unrelated events. In fact, though, they are intimately connected. Each intervention by Western powers is on behalf of Islamic movements; a peacekeeping force in the West Bank would merely be the latest. Even Western opposition to Russia in the Caucasus is more of the same.
A step back reveals an important geographical and historical overlap: the United States and its allies are in the process of trying to occupy significant portions of the old Ottoman Empire. They are using sufficient forces only if unopposed and catastrophically insufficient forces when they are opposed. And the Western powers are, interestingly, intervening on behalf of Muslims against Christians and Jews.
Governments from Paris to Washington, as a result, are adopting old imperial responsibilities as the new century unfolds. Like other empires, they will not be thanked by anyone. And as policy goes, this one has not been explicitly stated; it is neither clear nor backed by sufficient force with an understanding of risks and rewards.
Of course, no policymaker will confess that this is policy; these governments are merely adopting a neutral, peacekeeping stance. That is their sincere intent, at least. But there is always a gap between intentions and reality. And the reality, however unintended, is mind-boggling in scope, cost and risk — and can easily swallow the ambitions of more than one political leader and even his nation.
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http://www.stratfor.com/node/3503/analysis/skopje_jerusalem_american_empire
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